Cases

Forecast for the India Fiber to the X Market for a Global Leader in Telecom Equipment

Challenge

The client was a leading vendor of cable and passive components needed in FTTx (fiber-to-the-x) access solutions worldwide. The public telecom operators in India had demonstrated interest in deploying FTTx solutions even while the broadband penetration in the country is abysmally low and such a deployment seems economically unviable. The client wanted to understand the drivers behind this development and synthesise a market forecast for FTTx in the country.

Our Approach

To understand the development and to create a market forecast for FTTx in India, UC adopted the following approach:

  • Assessed key drivers for FTTx deployment, including broadband demand, triple play services, development of content, regulatory aspects and key inhibitors such as low penetration, lack of content, affordability, high capex per subscriber, competing technologies etc.
  • Assessed business models for FTTx deployment across various entities including telecom operators, local exchange carriers (LEC’s), real estate players, etc.
  • Assessed FTTx deployment characteristics (network topology, fiber-to-the-home versus fiber-to-the-business) across brown field and green field and across telecom operators
  • Projected the likely future technology mix based on an assessment of various technologies
  • Analysed trends in key customer segments and mapped the competitive landscape
  • Based on the above, developed a five year market forecast and projected likely optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Also developed a synthesis of strategic insights.

Impact

The client obtained a realistic assessment of the Indian market for FTTx. Key tipping points, potential upsides in the market and inputs on the client’s potential role in influencing these was provided.