30 Years – India’s Strategy Boutique
30 Years – India’s Strategy Boutique

Life Sciences (Pharma & MedTech)

Forecasting the Market Potential of a Pertuzumab Biosimilar for HER2+ Breast Cancer in India

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Forecasting the Market Potential for HER2 & Breast Cancer India

Client Challenge

Our client, a global pharmaceutical company based in Hyderabad, India, has a diverse portfolio that includes APIs, generics, branded generics, biosimilars, and OTC products. The client plans to launch a pertuzumab biosimilar for treating HER2+ breast cancer in India. They engaged UC to develop a forecast for the market potential and uptake of this biosimilar in the Indian healthcare market.

Our Approach

UC adopted a comprehensive and systematic approach to create an accurate forecast model for the pertuzumab biosimilar:

  1. Epidemiology Analysis:
  • Analyzed the prevalence and incidence rates of breast cancer in India, with a specific focus on HER2+ breast cancer cases in private healthcare settings.
  1. Treatment Protocol Assessment:
  • Conducted in-depth discussions with oncologists to understand the treatment protocols for various stages of breast cancer, including the integration and use of pertuzumab.
  1. Prescription and Adoption Analysis:
  • Investigated current prescription patterns, adoption rates, and patient compliance for pertuzumab in existing clinical settings to gauge potential acceptance of the biosimilar.
  1. Pricing Scenario Evaluation:
  • Assessed different pricing scenarios for the biosimilar and their impact on adoption rates, particularly across different city tiers (metros, tier-1, and tier-2 cities).
  1. Forecast Model Development:
  • Developed a detailed forecast model considering the expected launch of three competitors at similar price points.
  • Calculated potential market share and patient uptake for the biosimilar over the next five years.
  • Estimated the number of doses required to achieve the projected market share.
  1. Scenario Analysis:
  • Analyzed the forecast model under two different treatment cycle scenarios: 18 cycles and 12 cycles.
  • Created base case and best case scenarios for both treatment cycle lengths.

Our Impact

The client received a comprehensive forecast model and an in-depth report containing the following insights:

  1. 5-Year Patient Share Forecast:
  • Predicted the share of HER2+ breast cancer patients expected to be treated with the pertuzumab biosimilar, including a breakdown between the originator drug and the biosimilars.
  • Provided projections for both 18-cycle and 12-cycle treatment scenarios.
  1. Dose Requirements:
  • Estimated the number of doses required to achieve the projected market share for both base case and best case scenarios.
  1. Market Dynamics:
  • Included insights into market dynamics, competitive landscape, and potential adoption rates across different regions and city tiers.

Conclusion

Through this detailed forecast model, UC provided the client with critical insights and actionable data to strategically plan the launch and market positioning of their pertuzumab biosimilar. This enabled the client to make informed decisions on production, pricing, and distribution strategies to maximize the biosimilar’s uptake and market share in the Indian healthcare market.